Trump elephant in room as SA argues Agoa case

South Africa’s fraught relationship with the US is once again in the spotlight as a delegation led by trade & industry minister Parks Tau is in Washington to plead at a summit with the Biden administration for the renewal of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). Since 2000, the Agoa legislation has allowed South Africa and other sub-Saharan countries to benefit from duty-free trade with US businesses, and until recently its annual extensions had been a routine matter.

That all changed in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, an action that divided world opinion. South Africa’s “non-alignment” position has strained our relations with the West and raised question marks over our foreign policy in a world where the US faces an increasingly assertive array of countries boasting economic and military prowess. These include Russia itself, as well as China and countries such as Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Tempers cooled somewhat after former international relations minister Naledi Pandor led a delegation to the US earlier this year to argue for Agoa’s extension, which was being threatened by conservative Republican legislators.

Yet from the administration of US President Joe Biden there has been enthusiastic approval for an extension of Agoa. The White House’s support is premised on an understanding reached between Pandor and US secretary of state Antony Blinken, based on an acceptance, reluctant perhaps, that South

Africa has historic ties with the Soviet Union, given that it supported the ANC when it was still a liberation movement fighting the apartheid government, which itself was backed by successive US administrations.

US-South Africa relations got back on track after President Cyril Ramaphosa took part in a peace mission to Russia and Ukraine in mid-2023 and also persuaded Putin not to travel here for the

Brics summit later in the year. But the goodwill evaporated after South Africa took Israel to the

International Court of Justice, arguing that Israel was plausibly committing genocide in Gaza.

While US patience with South Africa may be wearing thin, and while our economy is a small player in the greater scheme of things, it is clear that the US needs this country a great deal more than it might care to admit in public. Aside from Agoa, the US imports vital South African minerals, chromium being an example. Despite its reservations about our foreign policy, South Africa remains important to US interests and retaining its status as a world power.

Africa’s vast mineral resources, its role as a market for US goods and its diplomatic clout in world forums are too enticing for the US to ignore. China and Russia will happily step into any vacuum left by the US if it chooses to vacate the Africa scene in a huff.

Agoa has limited importance for South African trade seen in its entirety, but it is vital in keeping South Africa within the circle of mostly Western states, including Europe, even if our foreign policy is not exactly supportive of prolonging Western hegemony, both political and economic.

In his argument for retaining Agoa, Tau has emphasised it is vital to the re-industrialisation of South Africa and for industrialisation in the rest of sub-Saharan Africa.

The elephant in the US-South Africa trade negotiations room is undoubtedly Donald Trump, who stands a better than even chance of being re-elected to the US presidency in November. A Trump presidency could be a hammer blow to Africa’s trade ambitions.

Given that South Africa, even under a government of national unity, is unlikely to soften its stance on Israel, relations between Pretoria and Washington could come under greater stress, especially if the Republicans make a clean sweep of the House and Senate.

An obviously non-aligned, free and democratic South Africa could hardly be rejected by any US administration. If we continue to explain our policy orientation in clear and honest terms, the US should be only too pleased to have an African partner in South Africa. If open trade with the US is helping to bolster democracy on the continent, the US will be hard-pressed to shut the door, regardless of who is in the White House.

It is clear the US needs this country a great deal more than it might care to admit in public