Crumbling infrastructure is ticking time bomb for SA

Huge infrastructure challenges are a ticking time bomb for South Africa as the country grapples with power cuts, water shortages and potholes. The South African Institution of Civil Engineering (Saice) last year highlighted how the country is at risk of becoming a “failed state” if it does not address its infrastructure woes.

South Africa scored a painful “D” on Saice’s 2022 report, which stressed how our infrastructure is failing to cope with normal demand and is poorly maintained.

In his state of the nation address (Sona) last year, President Cyril Ramaphosa highlighted how “infrastructure is central to our economic reconstruction and recovery”. A key component of the government’s plan is its R100bn Infrastructure Fund, which the president last year said was “now working with state entities to prepare a pipeline of projects with an investment value of approximately R96bn in student accommodation, social housing, telecommunications, water and sanitation and transport”. All these measures are well-intentioned. But faster action is needed if we are to address our growing infrastructure challenges and unlock opportunities for our economy.

The president also announced the appointment of Sipho Nkosi to reduce red tape around procurement processes. We have seen no progress on this front and have experienced even further delays in infrastructure delivery. We need change and we need it now.

To start turning around South Africa’s infrastructure and economic prospects, it may be worthwhile for Ramaphosa to look at what his counterpart in Indonesia, President Joko Widodo, has achieved. In 2013 Indonesia along with South Africa, Brazil, India and Turkey was listed among Morgan Stanley’s “Fragile Five” economies.

But since Widodo became president in 2014, Indonesia’s economy has taken off, with more than 5% GDP growth in 2022. In large part, this has been thanks to Widodo’s success in focusing on improving infrastructure. His administration has constructed more than 2,000 toll roads, compared to around 700 in the previous 40 years. Indonesia today also has 16 new airports, 18 new seaports and 38 new dams.

Infrastructure holds the key to stronger growth in South Africa. But the question is how to fast-track our infrastructure development and maintenance. In my view, there are three factors that can be considered here: driving up gross fixed capital formation; establishing a centralised master plan; and maintaining our existing infrastructure better and more consistently, through planning and with technology.

Gross fixed capital formation is investment into the economy in plants, machinery, equipment and buildings.

South Africa’s presidency has set a target of achieving 30% for the gross fixed capital formation to GDP ratio by the year 2030.

The country is a long way from this as the ratio was just 15% in 2021. Since democracy, the highest this figure has reached is 23.5%, in 2008.

As part of his 2023 state of the nation address on February 9, the president should provide an update on what specifically is being done to drive up gross fixed capital formation.

The government should also consider developing an integrated master plan that connects all sectors of the economy and society, from health through to infrastructure, telecommunications, educ ation and more. This could take the form of the current National Development Plan (NDP) or a newly updated initiative. For example, if a smart city is being built, there needs to be a master plan that encompasses the development of high-speed broadband services for that city.

This plan should seek to create greater cohesion among the road, rail and ports infrastructure to increase efficiencies. By improving our rail and port services, we could potentially take thousands of trucks off our roads and thereby ensure there is less wear and tear, and fewer potholes

A third key measure involves taking a closer look at how we monitor and manage the state of our infrastructure. A solution to achieving a better level of monitoring is a technology called “digital twins”. A digital twin is a digital replica of physical assets, such as buildings and roads. By sharing data between the virtual and the real-world environment, governments and key stakeholders can pre-empt issues through proactive maintenance.

In a digital twin application, engineers could install sensors and cameras along a stretch of road to monitor its load, traffic and emerging potholes.

Engineers then use this information to build an accurate digital replica of the existing system that can help to predict and manage demand and implement just-intime maintenance.

SA is at risk of becoming a ‘failed state’ if it does not address its infrastructure woes