Mantashe casts pall over cabinet reshuffle

So the much-anticipated cabinet reshuffle is coming, maybe before the end of February or March. It will not be a reform reshuffle; there are no reformers in the ANC. The rejig will play out like a football match, with President Cyril Ramaphosa as the coach, making changes based only on the people on the bench as his reserves.

He has two former premiers already on the bench, kitted out, warmed up and ready to go, in the form of David Makhura and Sihle Zikalala. Makhura is likely to go to public services & administration, a vacancy created last April when Ayanda Dlodlo moved to the World Bank. Zikalala may replace Fikile Mbalula at the transport department.

There’s speculation that business figures such as Martin Kingston and Stavros Nicolaou could be attracted to the cabinet for a portfolio like trade & industry. I doubt either man would do that to themselves.

What does Ramaphosa do with the monkey on his shoulder — Gwede Mantashe? Over the past two months, Mantashe has been more like a baboon on his back, scaring off political opponents and helping him win at the Nasrec conference.

He is under a barrage of criticism over news that the ANC will move Eskom to the energy portfolio. Opponents of such a move fear he will further frustrate the growth of renewable energy technologies.

Considering Mantashe’s re-energised political clout, it would be impossible for Ramaphosa to move him away from energy.

The best the president can do is split the portfolio back into separate energy and mining ministries.

There would still be a downside because mining stakeholders have grown accustomed to Mantashe. Bringing in a new minerals minister may not be what mining companies wish for.

If Ramaphosa realises he can’t touch Mantashe, he might need to present him with clear deliverables.

The president would then have to do what most bosses do: demand accountability.

The Ramaphosa era has always missed an enforcer or political pit bull similar to the role Essop Pahad played during Thabo Mbeki’s tenure.

Elsewhere in the world, presidents rely on their chiefs of staff to play a visible role, like an extension of the president.

In South Africa, the chief of staff takes a more administrative role.

Ramaphosa has an opportunity to look at the man closest to him — at least in terms of their physical offices — minister in the Presidency Mondli Gungubele. But he is too much of a gentleman to be an enforcer.

Ramaphosa needs an eye over the entire cabinet to see if the portfolio work is in sync with the broader agenda.

Right now, every minister does their own thing and there is little co-ordination.

The fact that the likes of Derek Hanekom do not want Mantashe to be in charge of Eskom shows they do not believe the cabinet system works. If it did, truant ministers would be shown up during cabinet meetings.

Many ministers need reining in so Ramaphosa can get more done in line with the public expectation that he is a reformer or some sort of fixer (he is neither).

Starting with Mantashe at energy, someone will have to “bell” him, like “belling the cat”, so that his action — more like inaction — is clearly audible or visible.

Remember Mantashe used to wear oversized suits? Makes you wonder how his family allowed him out of the house.

They looked like those “o tlo hola le tsona” (you will grow into them)” clothes our parents bought us sometimes.

Ramaphosa will need a straitjacket for him, or a tighter leash. Removing him will invite more trouble in the President’s camp.

What does Ramaphosa do with Gwede Mantashe, who has, in the past two months, been more like a baboon on his back, scaring off political opponents?