Ramaphosa’s resignation would hand power to ruthless kleptocrats

It’s not okay for a head of state to stuff the sofas in his farmhouse with hundreds of thousands of dollars in foreign currency of unknown origin. Let’s agree on this upfront. do not doubt that open-minded South Africans everywhere — particularly those who supported and cheered on his presidential bid in 2017 and 2019 — are feeling a mixture of disappointment and distaste as president Cyril Ramaphosa continues to face the fallout from his handling of the theft at his Phala Phala game farm.

The optics of the thing are deeply unpresidential and there is certainly an argument to be made that Ramaphosa’s position has become untenable.

But the prospect of the ANC being handed a mandate to select another from its ranks to replace Ramaphosa for the next 18 months before the general election in 2024 is more than untenable. It is unthinkable. And it would be a disaster from which South Africa might never be able to recover. Does this seem alarmist? It should not.

Because next in line for the presidency is David Mabuza; an absentee deputy president who spends most of his time in Russia as a guest of Vladimir Putin, and whose governance legacy in Mpumalanga is questionable at best and criminal at worst.

He is followed in the party pecking order by Ramaphosa’s most proximate rival for the party presidency, Zweli Mkhize, a former health minister who is under investigation for looting public funds from his own department amid a pandemic that killed more than 101,000 South Africans and devastated the lives of millions more.

The rest of the party’s nominees for its top six leadership positions read like a who’s who of the scandal-ridden and corruption-accused, a study of the brazen lawlessness that is tolerated — even celebrated — in the governing party. Names like Malusi Gigaba, Andile Lungisa, Mduduzi Manana and Bathabile Dlamini have attracted nominations in their thousands, placing them among the party’s top nominees for its most senior leadership positions.

We must remember that South Africa is not a direct democracy. Aside from ward councillors at the local level, we do not elect our public representatives, and we can neither hire nor fire them; our system outsources that power to political parties. Every new vacancy between elections is filled by the party whose seat has just been vacated, at the party’s sole discretion and without input from or consultation with voters.

The president’s resignation would not result in the dissolution of parliament and an early general election, however loudly the DA might call for it. The ANC has just emerged from a bruising local government election and knows perfectly well that party support is at its lowest ebb. So why would it shorten its own parliamentary mandate and go to the polls to return with fewer seats in the house?

A resignation by Ramaphosa would simply hand the reins of power to a group of ruthless party kleptocrats whose only motivation for seeking power is to stay out of jail and lay claim to the national purse. No call for him to fall on his sword can ignore this reality.

The seriousness of the removal of a head of state from office in terms of section 89 of the constitution cannot be overstated. It requires twothirds of the National Assembly’s support and can only follow a finding that the president violated his oath of office, the constitution or the law. This is why parliament has subjected impeachment to a two-fold process, beginning with a preliminary investigation and followed by a parliamentary committee investigation, should the preliminary findings point to sufficient evidence of wrongdoing.

I will not dwell here on the shortcomings of the independent panel report or whether it is ripe for judicial review. Better legal and constitutional analysts than I have already done the job admirably. As MPs convene in Cape Town next week they must consider these views as they decide whether the independent panel report has provided them with grounds enough to take the next steps required to pursue this very grave course of action.

As to the question of whether he should step down, there is simply no scenario in which the resignation of Ramaphosa before 2024 is a good thing for South Africa. The state of the ANC and the strictures of our political system mean that the most likely outcome is 18 months of absolute chaos for our country.

If what we want is for South Africa to go ahead and burn in the hopes that a political crisis might shake our country’s voters into action in 2024, then let us say so with our chests.

But we should not succumb to the delusion that calling for the president’s head will magically right what is wrong with our politics today. That opportunity only awaits us the next time we go to the polls.